Transferithm™WC 2026
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Track record · year to date

How our signal has actually performed

Every figure shows its denominator, and every exclusion is disclosed — the source boards count resolved reports only, with open sagas held out (and counted) as pending, so the numbers can’t flatter us.

year to date· updated daily · ground truth: Sportmonks completions

How to read this

Hit rate: of the deals we tracked that actually completed, how often our signal pointed the right way. n= shows how many cases each number is based on - a rate built on 12 cases is a hint, not a fact. Calibration: when our internal rating was higher, did deals actually complete more often? Timing edge: how many days before the official announcement we first flagged a deal. Source boards count resolved reports (completed, reported off, or older than 60 days); open sagas are shown as pending, never silently dropped.

World Cup form →

Source reliability

What a RITHM band has meant

Score quality

Tracked deals

Timing edge · early and growing

Completion rate — of a source’s resolved reports, the share whose move actually completed (Sportmonks-verified). A report is resolved when the move completed, was reported off, or is older than 60 days; open sagas are excluded from the denominator, so nobody is penalized for deals that have not had time to land.
Confirming-signal— a corroborating signal appeared in our sources after we flagged a rumor. Nota verified completed transfer — used by the calibration bands and the Brier score, never by the source boards.
Tier— source-reliability tier (T1 most reliable … T5 least), assigned per outlet.
Ground truth— completed transfers come from Sportmonks; the timing edge is measured against those completion timestamps.
Suppression— outlet rows with fewer than 30 resolved reports (n<30) are hidden; journalist rows appear from n=10, and small samples carry a “Thin” label.